3 reasons why BMS estimates miss the mark on battery degradation

Min Read
Written by
Published on
September 15, 2025

What energy storage operators should understand about Battery Management System limitations

The renewable energy industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) becoming the backbone of grid stability and renewable integration. However, beneath the surface of promising performance dashboards lies a concerning reality: your Battery Management System (BMS) might not be telling you the whole truth about battery degradation.

Recent industry analysis shows that State of Health (SoH) readings from a BMS can differ from the actual battery condition by as much as 8%. In a 50 MWh system operating at €50/MWh with daily cycling, this level of inaccuracy can significantly influence market bidding decisions. SoH is a key parameter for determining how much energy can be confidently offered, and it also feeds into State of Charge (SoC) algorithms, meaning errors in SoH often compound into less accurate SoC estimates. Together, these effects can reduce operational efficiency and revenue potential.

But why does this happen? Understanding the three key reasons your BMS "lies" about degradation is crucial for asset managers, operators and investors who depend on accurate performance data for critical business decisions.

#1. BMS rely on oversimplified cycle-counting that ignores real degradation factors

Most Battery Management Systems rely on linear cycle-based estimation, a rudimentary approach that treats battery degradation as a simple mathematical relationship between the number of charge-discharge cycles and capacity loss. This method assumes that each cycle degrades the battery by a fixed percentage, regardless of operating conditions.

The reality is far more complex. Battery degradation involves intricate electrochemical processes influenced by multiple simultaneous factors:

  • Temperature effects: A 15°C increase above room temperature can halve a battery's lifespan.
  • Depth of Discharge (DoD) patterns: 100% DoD cycles degrade batteries much faster than 60-80% cycles.
  • C-rate variations: High charge/discharge rates accelerate degradation differently based on battery chemistry.
  • Resting state of charge: Batteries stored above 70% SoC experience significantly faster calendar aging.

#2. BMS hardware lacks the sensors and processing power for accurate battery health monitoring

The computational power and sensor density required for accurate battery health monitoring far exceed what most BMS systems provide. BMSs are designed primarily for safety and basic operational control, not comprehensive health analytics.

Key hardware limitations include:

  • Limited processing power: BMS microcontrollers are optimised for real-time safety functions, not complex degradation modelling. Advanced physics-based calculations that consider electrochemical processes, thermal dynamics and aging mechanisms require computational resources that most BMS systems simply don't possess.
  • Memory constraints: Comprehensive health tracking requires extensive historical data storage and analysis. Most BMS systems are rarely built to log information and have limited access to historical data, making it impossible to detect complex degradation patterns that develop over time.
  • Laboratory vs. real-world scaling: BMS algorithms are typically calibrated using laboratory data from individual cells, then extrapolated to full battery packs with thousands of cells, modules and complex thermal dynamics. These models don't scale accurately unless there's sufficient monitoring and computational power at the pack level – capabilities that are absent in most commercial BMS implementations.

#3. Proprietary BMS algorithms create opaque and unreliable degradation estimates

Most battery manufacturers treat their SoH estimation algorithms as proprietary intellectual property, creating what industry experts call "opaque black-box estimations". This lack of transparency creates several critical issues.

  • Conflict of interest: When warranty claims or performance disputes arise, manufacturers are essentially asking customers to trust algorithms that may be "biased towards one of the parties". The entity responsible for honoring warranties is the same entity controlling the health assessment methodology.
  • Lack of independent verification: Without algorithmic transparency, operators cannot independently validate health assessments or compare performance across different manufacturers. This creates information asymmetry that heavily favors equipment suppliers.
  • Manufacturer variability: Each manufacturer adopts their own definition of SoH, making it impossible to standardise assessments across mixed technology fleets. Some define health by capacity, others by power capability, and still others by internal resistance, with no industry consensus.
  • Update uncertainty: Over-the-air software updates can change health calculations, with documented cases where BMS health values increased by up to 10 percentage points after software updates. This raises fundamental questions about the consistency and reliability of proprietary health assessments.

How inaccurate BMS estimates impact revenue, safety and asset valuation

The consequences of inaccurate BMS health reporting extend far beyond technical inconvenience:

  • Revenue loss: The 8% SoH mismatch documented in real installations translates directly to reduced energy capacity and market participation capability. For large-scale installations, this represents hundreds of thousands of euros in annual revenue loss.
  • Safety risks: Inaccurate health assessments increase thermal runaway risk as batteries approach end of life. BMS systems that fail to accurately estimate degradation may continue operating batteries under conditions that become increasingly dangerous.
  • Asset valuation errors: Financial models, insurance valuations, and investment decisions based on inaccurate health data lead to systematic overvaluation of battery assets and incorrect risk assessments.
  • Warranty and compliance issues: Many manufacturers attach sweeping caveats to their BMS results, with typical accuracy disclaimers of ±10%. This margin of error is wide enough to mask the very degradation that warranties are designed to protect against.

How operators can go beyond BMS with transparent battery degradation monitoring

The solution isn't to abandon BMS technology, but rather to supplement it with independent, physics-based health assessment tools that provide transparent, accurate degradation analysis. Advanced Asset Performance Management platforms are emerging that offer:

  • Independent verification of BMS health claims
  • Physics-based modelling that considers real operational conditions
  • Transparent algorithms that can be validated and audited
  • Multi-vendor compatibility for standardised health assessments across diverse fleets

As the energy storage industry matures, accurate health assessment will become increasingly critical for asset optimisation, financial planning and operational safety.

Independent battery health insights with SynaptiQ

SynaptiQ's physics-based digital twin platform provides independent, accurate battery health assessment that reveals what your BMS isn't telling you. Discover the true state of your energy storage assets with comprehensive monitoring that considers real-world operational conditions, not just simplified cycle counting. Learn how SynaptiQ can transform your battery asset management and protect your investment with transparent, actionable intelligence.

Related Solutions
No items found.
No items found.
Attachments
Download PDF
Share this article

Join the Conversation

Don't miss out on valuable industry updates, subscribe to our newsletter and stay informed about the latest developments and opportunities in renewable energy.

Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
By subscribing you agree to receive updates from our company. For more information please read our Privacy Policy
Resources

Related Resources

Explore our knowledge hub for insightful articles, guides, and solutions

3E logo in brand color cyan 50
Join the Future Energy Movement: Sign up for our newsletter and be at the forefront of a sustainable world. Stay informed about the latest breakthroughs in solar, wind, and green fuels. Together, let's ignite a cleaner, brighter future.
Subscribe
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
By subscribing you agree to receive updates from our company. For more information please read our Privacy Policy
© 2023 3E. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, modification or distribution of all or part of the content,
graphics, logos, text, database, layout, or design of the website is prohibited without the prior written consent of 3E NV/SA.